Windows Phone Thoughts: Mobius 2006 Thailand: Day One

Be sure to register in our forums! Share your opinions, help others, and enter our contests.


Digital Home Thoughts

Loading feed...

Laptop Thoughts

Loading feed...

Android Thoughts

Loading feed...



Friday, September 22, 2006

Mobius 2006 Thailand: Day One

Posted by Jason Dunn in "EVENT" @ 04:00 AM




Dion Wiggins, Vice President and Research Director for Gartner, gave us a presentation on the future of Mobility (after a lengthy and impressive introduction of his background and skills – he programs fluently in 32 languages). Some of the points I pulled from his presentation:

  • By 2020, the average home will have more than 20 times the amount of wireless data interactions between devices than it has today. There are plenty of opportunities for amazing advances, but there are many issues around privacy that will need to be addressed.
  • People are spending money on IT, but in many cases in the wrong areas.
  • There are various aspects of how device design works: visceral (wow factor, looks good), behavioural (effective, easy and pleasant to use), and the values of the device and how they reflect the value of the user.
  • By 2010, 50% of all handsets shipping will be able to communicate with devices near them. This will allow for tremendous improvements in functionality, but it also presents many challenges.
  • He mentioned an interesting stat: when you're interrupted from your primary task, it takes an average of eight minutes to return to your previous level of productivity.
  • He talked about some of the hardware breakthroughs: an MIT group developed an internal-combustion engine on a chip, screens that use no power to display content that isn't changed (electronic ink), and multi-modal user interaction (such as the "nouse", a concept that allows you to control devices with your face through looks and blinking). Speech recognition in a noisy environment actually working? He says he's seen demonstrations from Microsoft Research Asia that are very compelling.
  • What are mobile operators going to do about all this? They haven't worked out how to monetize data properly. The threats they deal with include wireless VOIP, SMS shifting to IP messaging (email, IM), fear of becoming a low-margin bit pipe, consolidation, saturated markets, slow uptake of 3G services, pricing pressures on voice and SMS revenue, loss of customer control/loyalty/brand value, lack of differentiation, and more sophisticated corporate customers. The opportunities for carriers include things such as convergence and bundling, new offerings, note business areas (media, entertainment), multiple handset ownership, large installed base, and new types of subscribers (notebooks with embedded 3G).
  • Internet technologies are coming more and more into mobile devices: Flash Lite, HTML, Java, WiFi, 3G, RSS, IM. Few companies have really figured it out though, there are less than 50 truly impressive applications on the market today that bring together all the right pieces.
  • He talked about the way devices will have richer profile support. You'll be able to activate a software or hardware switch, and your phone will function as an MP3 player in a more dedicated fashion. One device, multiple profiles – though of course battery life becomes a huge issue.
  • He had a slide on keyboards that was quite interesting. Gartner has ranked various devices and their keyboards, and how they've all evolved toward the general Blackberry/Treo design.
  • There are key tradeoffs with form factors. Weight is hugely important – there's a "1 KG wasteland" where, if a device is too heavy, it simply doesn't go with the user everywhere they go. Screen size is important – can you see an entire email easily? Is it one handed or two handed? Each has vast differences in speed of input and data manipulation. Does the device render all of the files formats that you need?
  • Displays through 2008: inkjet technology that can print displays on uneven surfaces, zero power displays that only update once every 40 seconds, round screens, holographic screens, no backlight screens, and much less expensive srceens.
  • Bringing smartphones (any mobile device) into the IT fold is a huge challenge. Compared to notebooks, smartphones need more user training, use proprietary connectors, somewhat immature development cycles, have less remote management capabilities, sparse application selection, and require more IT support.
  • RIM Mobile strengths: Blackberry is focused highly on email, they have strong operator alliances, intense user loyalty, enterprise focused, and they have a cash hoard. Weaknesses: proprietary OS
  • Symbian strengths: wireless optimization, operator alliances, strong OEM partners, dominate share of prosumer Smartphones. Weaknesses: enterprise focus, consumer-oriented J2ME, weak branding, and weak profiles.
  • Windows Mobile strengths: development tools/developer loyalty, business applications, enterprise PDA market share, well-defined service profiles (reference designs), and many hardware OEM partners. Weaknesses: slow end-user innovation, long testing and release cycles, penetration within major OEMs is lacking, ownership of OS updates is frustrating. Threats to Windows Mobile include anti-Microsoft sentiment, internal bureaucracy, few identifying messages to consumer and prosumers, Java community, and Linux community.
  • Connectivity and Network Performance are going to continue to improve. By 2010 we'll have "4G" but it will be an assortment of different standards. He's expecting to see 1000 Mbps wireless by 2010.
  • Networking costs are going to continue to reduce
  • Storage is going to increase tremendously – micro drives with 20 GB of storage are around the corner. He was quite bullish on improvements in battery life and the decline of single-use devices such as the iPod. I disagreed with him, saying that the battery life is still very far away from being sufficient to allow people to completely drop dedicated audio and video players and to use their phones instead.
  • Trying the human in to the Internet: GPS location, height and time, distance
  • Wireless will be the essential glue to enable the vision of ambient intelligence
  • Getting it right means it's all about the PEOPLE: interface, ruggedness, connectivity, storage, performance, operating system, applications, power, add-ons, support, and security. All of them have to meet the needs of users in order to succeed.
  • Tags:

    Reviews & Articles

    Loading feed...

    News

    Loading feed...

    Reviews & Articles

    Loading feed...

    News

    Loading feed...

    Reviews & Articles

    Loading feed...

    News

    Loading feed...

    Reviews & Articles

    Loading feed...

    News

    Loading feed...

    Reviews & Articles

    Loading feed...

    News

    Loading feed...