Windows Phone Thoughts: Smart Phones On Top, Windows CE Out-ships Palm OS, Battle Ahead

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Wednesday, April 23, 2003

Smart Phones On Top, Windows CE Out-ships Palm OS, Battle Ahead

Posted by Andy Sjostrom in "NEWS" @ 03:54 AM

http://www.canalys.com/pr/r2003041.htm

The EMEA numbers are in from the research firm Canalys, and it is both good and terrible news for the Pocket PC and Windows CE camp. I will share some thoughts related to the report, but I am already looking forward to see Ed Hansberry's comments! 8)

The highlights include:
"- EMEA mobile device shipments in Q1 2003 up 125% on Q1 2002
- Nokia retains overall lead, but joined by smart phone vendors Sony Ericsson and Orange in top five
- Handheld/wireless handheld segment shows growth of 10%
- Palm remains the leading handheld vendor, but with shipments almost flat on one year ago"

The 125% overall market growth is astonishing. I remember reading not too long ago that sales of mobile devices was believed to be on a long term slip. We find two contributing factors behind the growth: Symbian (+799%) and Windows CE (+62%). Symbian's (Nokia, Sony Ericsson, etc) growth is on one hand from a poor Q1 2002 but on the other hand a growth that puts them in the lead of the total market. The total market is, in number of shipments, dominated by "smart phones" and as can be seen below, Symbian is not categorized at all in the "Data-centric"-category (PDAs and hybrids).

Windows CE out-ships, for the first time even in volume, Palm OS in the "Data-centric"-category as well as in the total market. Dell and ViewSonic is mentioned in the report from Canalys: "Dell was one of the new entrants in Q1, taking 2% share of the overall EMEA mobile device market with its Axim handhelds. Jones added: "For its first quarter, Dell made a good start. There was obviously some pent-up demand for a low-cost Pocket PC, but other vendors are already responding. Dell will need to broaden its product range if it wants to enjoy sustained success in this market."

It is a clear trend that Microsoft is winning in the "Data-centric"-category and I would expect to see the same development in the rest of the world. However, it is even more clear that the real battle for volume and revenue is not taking place in the PDA grounds but in the "Voice-centric" / "smart phone"-category. It is actually a very positive surprise to see that Microsoft has 7% of this market and has sold more than 62,170 Smartphones, which I assume the number represents. But in order to deal with, even just keep up, Symbian's massive growth that is to be expected, Microsoft definately needs to shift into higher gears. Microsoft is losing in the "Voice centric" / "smart phone" market, not winning. We need to see radical things happening to turn this around.

That said, let's celebrate the great Pocket PC numbers! It took three years and we've just begun!

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